Really insightful interview! Interesting to hear from important policy makers who are not household names. Hope some of the more positive protections (e.g. increased hiring of young people) are realized!
Heads up Kyla that your summary/reaction at the end seems to be the unedited audio with multiple takes of the same line at points
I still think inflation has been way higher than the government's "official" numbers. Housing has gone up 300 percent or more in many areas the last couple decades. Healthcare is crazy expensive. I don't know what the motives are to overlook these areas but the Feds' actions (cheap money) have clearly caused house inflation. The wealthy of course could care less which makes me wonder who the Fed is up to bat for.
I don't think it's cheap money that caused the housing crisis but the fact that many people are locked out of mortgages since policy changed after the sub prime crash. An analyst named Kevin Erdmann has a substack on this topic if anyone is interested
I absolutely agree, this article to me illustrated why people are so frustrated with policymakers. I don't think they are intentionally ignoring the needs of the public, but something is awry. Either you've got assets and you're doing okay or you're the 80% who are scrambling to pay for rent, food, medicine etc. Its not just doom scrolling it's the reality that many people are experiencing and then gaslit by officials. The cranes are great for the people who can afford the luxury condos they're building.
The Daly/Barkin framing is useful but skips the elephant: the FOMC minutes from April 8 explicitly mention rate HIKES were debated while the dot plot still shows a cut. When internal deliberations diverge from public messaging, the internal ones tend to win. Real Fed funds at -6.8% against a supply-driven oil shock is the Burns setup. The regional Fed commentary feels a cycle behind.
Regarding AI: Your Hank Green Video insipeed me to see how the SEC would spot actors artificially keeping the S&P 500 afloat and found this:
Spoofing trade entries makes other bots think that there is a lot of demand, so they buy even if the higher price buy orders are always withdrawn.
These types of manipulations are not irrelevant as estimated 60% of US equity trading in 2026 is algorithmic.
In the past this was highly enforced against but the most telling sign of the SEC being gutted for specifically this is the drop in disgorgement enforcements (returning "ill-gotten gains" to investors).
In 2024, disgorgement was $6.1 billion.
In 2025, it fell to $108 million. the lowest in history.
The SEC is no longer aggressively trying to "claw back" profits from complex technological trading strategies unless they can prove a specific individual "stole" from a specific investor.
This opens doors I can't even imagine. There might be more to the endless S& P 500.
Fantastic interview, Kyla. Such insightful comments from President Daly and President Barkin. Your comprehensive questions covered most, if not all, the bases. Keep up the wonderful work you're doing.
One thing that these senior policy makers did not discuss is the rise in the share of GDP going to corporate profits. In the decades after WWII, after tax corporate profits averaged 6-7% of GDP. This percentage started to rise in the early 2000’s and we now have an economy where after tax corporate profits comprise 11-12% of GDP. That explains the rise in the stock market over the past 25 years more than any other factor. Of course, this rise in profits has left the middle and working classes unable to cope with the increase in prices. As Warren Buffet said years ago, there’s been a class war going on for years and his side has been winning.
What a great interview!
Going to re-read it a second and possibly third time!
This is a really good piece, Kyla. Good balance and flow.
Thank you!
Really insightful interview! Interesting to hear from important policy makers who are not household names. Hope some of the more positive protections (e.g. increased hiring of young people) are realized!
Heads up Kyla that your summary/reaction at the end seems to be the unedited audio with multiple takes of the same line at points
Thanks for letting me know, it's been fixed
lol I hate it when this happens.
I still think inflation has been way higher than the government's "official" numbers. Housing has gone up 300 percent or more in many areas the last couple decades. Healthcare is crazy expensive. I don't know what the motives are to overlook these areas but the Feds' actions (cheap money) have clearly caused house inflation. The wealthy of course could care less which makes me wonder who the Fed is up to bat for.
I don't think it's cheap money that caused the housing crisis but the fact that many people are locked out of mortgages since policy changed after the sub prime crash. An analyst named Kevin Erdmann has a substack on this topic if anyone is interested
I absolutely agree, this article to me illustrated why people are so frustrated with policymakers. I don't think they are intentionally ignoring the needs of the public, but something is awry. Either you've got assets and you're doing okay or you're the 80% who are scrambling to pay for rent, food, medicine etc. Its not just doom scrolling it's the reality that many people are experiencing and then gaslit by officials. The cranes are great for the people who can afford the luxury condos they're building.
I was looking for mentions of Trickle Down Economics.
I think that theory has been debunked!
I agree that it doesn't work, has caused great harm, and is rarely mentioned.
But of course, let's give a $2B tax cut to top 1% so they continue to stoke the economy with trickle down... Such a joke this all is.
The Daly/Barkin framing is useful but skips the elephant: the FOMC minutes from April 8 explicitly mention rate HIKES were debated while the dot plot still shows a cut. When internal deliberations diverge from public messaging, the internal ones tend to win. Real Fed funds at -6.8% against a supply-driven oil shock is the Burns setup. The regional Fed commentary feels a cycle behind.
The evaluation methodology framing here is more precise than how it's usually discussed. Appreciate the clarity.
More on this: https://credentials.substack.com/p/why-treasury-yields-are-screaming
Regarding AI: Your Hank Green Video insipeed me to see how the SEC would spot actors artificially keeping the S&P 500 afloat and found this:
Spoofing trade entries makes other bots think that there is a lot of demand, so they buy even if the higher price buy orders are always withdrawn.
These types of manipulations are not irrelevant as estimated 60% of US equity trading in 2026 is algorithmic.
In the past this was highly enforced against but the most telling sign of the SEC being gutted for specifically this is the drop in disgorgement enforcements (returning "ill-gotten gains" to investors).
In 2024, disgorgement was $6.1 billion.
In 2025, it fell to $108 million. the lowest in history.
The SEC is no longer aggressively trying to "claw back" profits from complex technological trading strategies unless they can prove a specific individual "stole" from a specific investor.
This opens doors I can't even imagine. There might be more to the endless S& P 500.
Interesting interview.
I suggest you mention your podcast in the article. I found it on Pocket Casts after some search (Let’s Appreciate) but somehow does not work.
Unfortunately, I’m unable to view the comment from Kyla’s newsletter.
Wow great work Kyla. I really appreciate the interview, very enlightening and insightful
Fantastic interview, Kyla. Such insightful comments from President Daly and President Barkin. Your comprehensive questions covered most, if not all, the bases. Keep up the wonderful work you're doing.
Really well done interview, great questions
Counting cranes! I love it as a simple indicator of sentiment and intention
Super long, but important topics take time. Thank you!
One thing that these senior policy makers did not discuss is the rise in the share of GDP going to corporate profits. In the decades after WWII, after tax corporate profits averaged 6-7% of GDP. This percentage started to rise in the early 2000’s and we now have an economy where after tax corporate profits comprise 11-12% of GDP. That explains the rise in the stock market over the past 25 years more than any other factor. Of course, this rise in profits has left the middle and working classes unable to cope with the increase in prices. As Warren Buffet said years ago, there’s been a class war going on for years and his side has been winning.