weekly market update
this market is b-a-n-a-n-a-s
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This is a weekly market update (I post daily to TikTok). I publish these once a week (beta phase), as well as single stock pieces (1-3x a month) and macro deep-dives. I also publish on TikTok, Youtube, and Twitter!
YouTube here
Probably the best representation of investing I’ve seen:
The Market
The power of alternative grocers - people going to natural/gourmet super markets more - I think that this has a lot to do with the bifurcation of income as well. But very interesting to see how people’s spending habits on the day-to-day shift over time. A telling sign of 1) economic growth 2) higher incomes or 3) people wanting to flaunt fake-wealth - one of the three!
Marriott and PINS: 79% of people are using $PINS when actively considering their travel decisions”. Marriott is using a huge ad campaign (incorporating Pinterest) to try and get people out and about. Pinterest has a lot of cool stuff in the works - definitely watch this space!
Shiller PE is at all time highs - I try to not use the PE because how can you considering the below - but it is concerning to watch it tick up higher and higher
Dole is going public - some might say that things are truly getting ~bananas~ out there.
The sad state of a maybe - I think a lot about the future in the iteration of the metaverse, but there is a lot to say about the most inelastic companies out there that will stick because they are *bad* and we as humans have bad tendencies
TikTok launched resumes… TikTok is NOT A SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORM. THEY ARE AN AI APP. Reggie had a great point here - ByteDance’s goal is to eliminate search - They want to know what you are looking for before you do.
Again... ByteDance’s goal is to eliminate search In every vertical https://t.co/55lahjSAiv
Josh 🇳🇬🇺🇸 @JoshuaOgundu
We're excited to launch "TikTok Resumes" as a pilot program designed to continue expanding and enhancing TikTok as a new channel for recruitment and job discovery. https://t.co/cA9O7iFn1XETF Wars: DFA filing for ETFs with fees all < 20 bps, which means that the ETF wars are about to get heated. Active management might truly be a thing of the past.
Online vs Instore - E-commerce still has huge opportunities for growth.
Healthcare for a $: Dollar General is hiring a chief medical officer!!! YIKES!
Robinhood: "30% of retail investors in the US place orders using a mobile app, according to 2018 FINRA surveys. That number grows to 59% when looking solely at participants aged 18-34." Don’t underestimate the power of mobile, especially with the next generation.
More about Costco!!
Economy
Goodbye, Fed: The Fed is selling bond ETF portfolio on Monday - everyone already knows what’s going to go down, and everyone knows that they will come back if needed.
Treasury option skew have moved a lot this week - premium of puts over calls in 10-year futures has vanished!
Bonds continue to tick up - 10Y yields fell below 1.3%, which is just bonkers. Anyone short bonds is probably in a world of pain right now. No one really knows what is happening. It might be technicals. It might be positioning. It might be fundamentals. But a lot people are worried about ~growth~.
Labor force participation rate continues to languish - this is what the Fed is going to pay the most attention to, so it’s concerning that it doesn’t appear to be recovering quite as quickly as anticipated.
Container rates still at all time highs - demand too high relative to the pace of delivery. However, the Fed is still insisting that everything is temporary (but has admitted that inflation is pretty high)
The TGA balance will be important to pay attention to - they are not ~meeting their goals~ which will mean 1) higher RRP use due to a cut in bill issuance or 2) an intensification in the debt ceiling debate
FOMC who?? The market didnt really pay much attention to the FOMC minutes, but the main take away is that the taper will probs end by the end of 2022, rate hikes might come sooner than expected, and there was another increase in counterparty limits :) rrp who!!
Crypto
Bullish: A crypto exchange with basically a prototype is going public - Bullish is going with Tom Farley, former president of NYSE. There is a lot of excitement to validate crypto, and this is just one way to do it! I am excited, but a bit worried about Bullish.
Circle is going public. This is huge for the validation of crypto in the eyes of the regulators, and especially good for USDC.
Lots of venture money going into the space: “Excluding Block.one’s $9.7 billion injections into Bullish Global — there was roughly $6.2 billion in private investment, or approximately a 90% increase in venture funding Q/Q.”
“This quarter alone had more funding than all of 2018 combined” !!! what is going onnnnn
Financial services get the most $$ - so if you want to go into crypto, might make sense to check one of these out!
Coinbase falling out of favor in the app store. Bullish for crypto (seriously. Coinbase is an inverse signal imo).
The Week Ahead
Lots of banks reporting this week!!
Lots of economic data too
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Powell will be speaking to Congress on Wednesday. Will he say something different? 😮 Probably not. 🤣