weekly market update
dalio for fed chair
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This is a weekly market update (I post daily to TikTok). I publish these once a week (beta phase), as well as single stock pieces (1-3x a month) and macro deep-dives. I also publish on TikTok, Youtube, and Twitter!
YouTube Linked HERE
Don’t post math memes, as I learned this week. This tweet below was a joke, a jest, a josh - but yes, 800% gains would not recoup a 90% loss. Thank you, Internet. I simply had no idea, but now, I do.
Market
Green week for the market!
Best performers (shhh the market is digesting):
AMZN and GME: GME’s entire executive board is turning into Amazon. What does this mean for the future of the video game retailer? Will we see GWS? When Bezos goes into outer space, will GME acquire AMZN? Was the whole plan all along simply to become an e-commerce giant?
Retire Rich: Where are retirement dollars being held? Mostly in IRAs - but not all of us can be Peter Thiel! :( Thiel has ~$5bn in his account, but the average American has ~$39k.
There are over $12 trillion in IRA's today - owned by 48 million households. and Peter Thiel (mostly).
Source: Dividend Growth Investor
Alex Good’s long-only portfolio is really good - not investment advice, but a great breakdown of future returns and opportunities.
Restaurants and Inflation: Olive Garden is back in full swing. There might be inflation, but not in their world - that’s being passed off to the customers.
Market mechanics are really important - there was a huge options expiry this past Friday which kept the indices pinned (meaning that mechanics were keeping things afloat). Never underestimate the sheer dynamics of the market system.
A little bit of yield: Junk bonds trading low - a 7Y junk bond pricing to 2.45% (With the 30Y treasuries trading ~2%, things are getting pretty tight). Scraping for yield!
The market is skewed - we often forget that a few key stocks are driving the success of the overall market. The big tech drivers move the S&P quite a bit - and it’s important to remember that ~big tech~ is not the whole market.
Costco is once again a powerful company! The power of Kirkland brand and the warehouse remains strong and steady.
Economy
Growth: China is growing the quickly, followed by Ireland. The US is trailing along.
Bonds: Freaked out last weekend, but things recovered on the week. Was it a short covering or a flight to safety? It was a huge bearfest regardless - the market is expecting the Fed to be more data sensitive, and more responsive to movements in inflation and employment numbers. Overall, the market was not happy, and the 16 FOMC speakers that showed up this past week was the Fed’s way of placating it.
And of course, Ray Dalio weighed in - said Fed can’t do anything with regards to policy without spooking the market. So that’s that. Dalio has spoken.
Kaplan said the USD can’t remain reserve currency forever, which is basically a bid to put downward pressure on the dollar and upward pressure on stocks.
Supply chains are a mess. Trucking is very volatile. Ocean shipping rates have increased 22.4% globally. There has been a huge supply chain crush. Normally shipping containers would go for ~$3k - but now ~$20k. Coupled with lots of companies citing inflation on earnings calls combines into a ~logistical nightmare~.
The corporate structure: too many bosses and not enough workers. This will be an interesting dynamic to watch unfold, especially as crypto forces us to rethink about how companies are organized. Middle management might be a thing of the past.
Huge uptake in RRP. Getting closer and closer to $1T everyday.
Crypto
Is tether a scam?? I truly don’t know enough to weigh in, but the more research I do the more confused I am.
Curve rewards have fallen - someone said that DeFi is beginning to look as lame as their bank :/ incentives are everything here.
Bitcoin mining and China - China is banning Bitcoin mining.
This means that the hash rate will change (amongst other things). But many in the Bitcoin community believe its actually a good thing.
Sentiment is bad though. Many are worried, and crypto is still going through it.
The Week Ahead
Some earnings for a quieter week. The market is going into a U.S. holiday so I think things will be relatively boring this week.
Economic Data
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Keep up!