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Ampersand888's avatar

I’m glad my subscription helped you create this survey. I hope to see more first hand research in the future.

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Neil Pegram's avatar

Thanks for yet another insightful piece! Maybe I overlooked it in your research, but it seems like the core issue missed in a lot of the discussions around the impacts of AI, is a timeframe.

For instance related to the impacts of AI on employment, it makes a big difference if we are discussing job loss over the next 2 years, 10 years, 25 years, or 50 years (young people choosing a university degree now are going to be impacted by a 50 year question). Imagine if when the first production automobile hit the market, we had polled all the people who work as carriage drivers, care and feed horses, manufacture carriages and equipment for horses...etc, and asked them if they thought cars would impact or eliminate their job. The most important part of the question is the timeline. 2 years after the invention of the car, it barely had an impact on those people's employment and some people started working for the new car industry. But if you'd ask them how the job market related to horse carriages was going to look in 100 years, they probably would have rightfully assumed that it was going to be a 90% reduction.

But what's really unique about AI over past technological and industrial changes is that in 100 years human carriage builders are going to seem about as intelligent as the horses, compared to AI.

So what we're doing now, is like watching horses trying to survey other horses in 1925 about whether or not they think these new automobiles are going to eliminate their jobs in 100 years. The horses might have been scared of automobiles and maybe they could even communicate between each other that they've seen lots of automobiles, and communicate to their foal that automobiles are scary, but they couldn't do a complex survey of the long-term impacts of automobiles on the global industry, and there's absolutely no way they could have comprehended self-driving electric cars in 100 years.

So, while I find it fascinating that we are having lots of discussions about who's going to lose their job in the next 2 years, we should be really discussing which industries are going to have a 95% elimination of human workers in 25 years (or less), and then backcast from that.

For instance with the advent of AI apps like Showrunner, we can debate about how many jobs in CGI and animation are going to be eliminated in the next 2 years. But it seems pretty clear that in 25 years 95% of the current jobs related to the production of animated film will be eliminated. Just like all of the thousands of people who used to hand draw individual images of Mickey mouse.

These questions of timelines are very important to actually planning and investing in the structures of companies, education systems, and employment in our societies, because those are 25 year or ideally 50 year questions, not 2-year questions.

Thank you for all of your work. (Ps I also love bikes)

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