Good Links: Economic Levers, Education, and Pokémon
labor utilization, investment industry bloat, and reflection
I’ve been keeping (copious) amounts of notes in Notion, and have been asked to walk through them more often - so I am going to experiement with this Saturday links newsletter. It will be similar to my main newsletter - a mix of markets and philosophy. I do want to crowdsource some knowledge, so if you would like, leave any favorite reads this week in the comments - I will add them to my Notion document!
Good Chart
Labor! Julia Pollak from ZipRecruiter shared - “people have been getting the hours they want and moving into high-quality jobs. There are now 1.8 million more full-time workers than before the pandemic and 2.4 million fewer part-time workers.”
Big Reflection
On giving yourself permission to evolve and change: I’ve been thinking through this book by Sister Corita Kent Learning by Heart: Teachings to Free the Creative Spirit popularized in John Cage’s Some Rules for Students and Teachers - all of them resonate with me (rule 4 describes this newsletter!) but specifically, the last line “there should be new rules next week”. We live in a dynamic system, and we should remember that more.
Threads and Articles
How the System Works - This was a thread from Charles Mann that walked through an idea on creating a high school course around How Things Work - everything from how systems deliver water to how public health operates. I think this is great. It reminds me of what Ha-Joon Chang once said “It is extremely important for our democracy to function that ordinary citizens understand the key issues and basic theories of economics” - that ties into what Charles is saying too. The more we understand the world around us, the better off we will likely be.
The pervasiveness of the Amazon Effect - This was an interesting thread from Cole South on our hyperconsumptive culture and how Amazon allows black-hat international sellers to sell unsafe and unregulated products (or complete copies of other sellers work). It ties into the broader Amazon Effect - we’ve gotten so used to cheap and fast, and it’s become dangerous in more ways than one.
The divergence between CEO optimism and the economy - VK Macro shared this graph showing that CEOs are much more optimistic about what *their* company is doing - and much more bearish on the broader economy. Perhaps illusory superiority, everyone can drive their car better than everyone else.
Celsius bankruptcy letters to the judge - Molly White shared this list of letters from people that lost everything in the Celsius bankruptcy. It’s truly heartbreaking. Ryan Selkis pointed out the contrast between how BlockFi approached this versus how Celsius did - and it underscores the importance of clearer regulation and elements of customer protection. The crypto market is still really hot - as Jai Malik highlights “wild to see pre-product, pre-revenue "web3" startups still getting funded at higher valuations than many post-revenue startups” - so hopefully those investing in these companies are being mindful.
The economic levers - The Fed has their dual mandate of [price stability, maximum employment] and Oliver Blanchard wrote a thread stating that we would need to convince workers that unemployment would have to rise to battle inflation. David Andolfatto responded asking “Why is it always "workers" that need convincing and not anyone else (suppliers, consumers, investors, firms, etc.)? There are literally a thousand dimensions along which adjustments can take place, but somehow, it's U that *has* to do the adjusting. Why is that?” I think that the current economic regime (which I lightly touched on in my last piece) could have different levers.
Monetary policy was an accident (Federal Reserve history has a lot of amazing essays on this) - there are a lot of tools out there that the Fed is going to have to explore versus relying on old regime ways of thinking.
The true marginal cost of production - Going deeper into the mechanics of the economic regime, Hunter shared this tweet asking One of the Big Questions - how much did VC money finance this life as we know it - and how sustainable was that to begin with? As this 2015 paper highlights, VC funding has powered a *lot* of companies - “20% of the largest three hundred US public firms & 75% of the largest VC-backed ones would not have existed or achieved their current scale without an active VC industry.”
But we are starting to see that shift, kind of. It’s an element of Big Tech turning over - Microsoft removing job listings, Google and GitHub freezing hiring, startups going through layoffs. Our world has been largely financed by money being Relatively Easy for the past few years, but that’s shifting. Now people need to train up, as Conor and Derek highlight - and there is a gap between training and having people be good at their jobs.
Brand versus Education - From InsideHigherEd, Harvard doesn’t want to pay endowment taxes, which would draw $50m from their $39b endowment. In negotiation, they are asking for the tax rate to be lowered so they can provide grants to lower-income students (which is good!). They have a massive endowment, especially relative to the student population size they serve, as Hank Green points out. Taxes are weird. Universities are weird.
There is a whole conversation around the elitism of universities, how they don’t let certain students in, how that compounds to the elitism of different corporations - and it’s possible to break through, but it’s just good to parse out credentialism vs actual credit at some point. Here is a good 2013 paper on improving educational outcomes to address the latter point - actual education - practice, quiz, explain.
The Future is Online, but Together - YouTube released their 2022 report walking through how Gen Z uses social media (a lot) and the importance of strong digital communities. People are seeking out experiences and a deep personal connection (as well as some threads of escapism) which will impact how we consume content.
Pokémon printer - I just really love this from Fortune talking about how Pokémon had to print more cards to stop people from profiting majorly off selling cards for absurd prices. It’s very much monetary policy.
How a child views personhood - Finally, this thread from lisatomic on how an 11 year old views the world. They think that you become a person when you experience emotion, and your emotions drive you forward - they aren’t something to be avoided, but rather tools. As lisatomic wrote “continued development through engagement with the world is what makes a human a Person”.
Quotes and Thoughts
I’ve been really reflective on the difference between self belief and self worth (a h/t to conversation with my friend John) and how to… have both. So as one does (don’t do this lol), I’ve been reading a lot of Henry Miller.
On Progress - I’ve been muddling through the Air-Conditioned Nightmare by Henry Miller1, a reflection on his trip across the United States for the past few weeks. A lot of it resonates, a lot of it doesn’t, but the paragraph below -
On Human Spirit - However, I think the above is actually a good pairing with this from Sexus (also by Henry Miller, I am sure my rabbithole is apparent) on how we don’t realize how beautiful and lovely we are.
Every day we slaughter our finest impulses. That is why we get a heart−ache when we read those lines written by the hand of a master and recognize them as our own, as the tender shoots which we stifled because we lacked the faith to believe in our own powers, our own criterion of truth and beauty. Every man, when he gets quiet, when he becomes desperately honest with himself, is capable of uttering profound truths. We all derive from the same source. There is no mystery about the origin of things. We are all part of creation, all kings, all poets, all musicians; we have only to open up, only to discover what is already there.
On Misunderstanding - I think that part of the problem with truly opening up with the above - becoming, believing in ourselves, being honest - is that we do live in this world where it’s best to close off and attempt to not experience anything, or just laugh at it. Safer that way. You see it on Twitter all the time, how ready people are to fight over the silliest things. Franz Kafka has this really beautiful book called Letters to Felice and one thing he wrote - “All the love in the world is useless when there is total lack of understanding” - resonated with this idea.
Investment Industry Bloat - Kris is one of my favorite thinkers, and as we talk about the changing economic regime, I think it’s important to explore how the investment industry *should* change too.
Source: Kris
Good Picture
Let me know what you think and again, if you had any favorite reads this week leave them in the comments - I will add them to my Notion document!
Thanks for reading!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
His stuff can be a bit graphic, so just a heads up
Never did I imagine reading an Econ article about Pokémon in my adulthood
Kyla, absolutely love the spirit of this week’s newsletter…seems impossible to head where you are with your work without including your own becoming as part of it. Also, the inclusion of other’s work, tweets, etc, works well too to my read. Bravo!