Kyla’s Newsletter

Kyla’s Newsletter

The Fed is Hiking Up That Mountain

the labor market billy goat and disinflation storm clouds

kyla scanlon
Jan 05, 2023
∙ Paid

The Fed minutes - the clock is ticking! Podcast and YouTube up soon

Most mountains have switchbacks built into them, so the slope to climb isn’t as steep. It takes some effort out of the hike, and is essentially a zigzag up (and down) the side.

  • The Fed has been directly climbing the mountain over the past year or so - no switchbacks, no walking poles, just pure love of the grind.

  • Now, they are approaching some economic switchbacks - data that will make them slow their roll (like inflation slowing down) and might make the overall endeavor of a soft landing easier. Still hiking but mindfully.

  • However, switchbacks can also make the climb more difficult if you choose to ignore them entirely

The big question for 2023 will be how the Fed approaches their hiking path - will they incorporate switchbacks into their climb or will they just straight up rip the side of the mountain?

Fed speed

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