But you did write, “Nostalgia works as content but it certainly fails as governance.” And THAT was brilliant. So appreciated you walking through the workings of bond markets - so clear and easy to follow!
I feel no matter what happens at this point, the American global hegemony - political, military and economic - is over, and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. I don't think it's the end of America as some are saying, but it will definitely be a different one. What happens over the next few months (or maybe years, but I don't think the current situation has the inertia to continue that long before ending or breaking by some means) will determine just whose America it is - everyone's, or a select few, but the US will not be the powerhouse it is now, in almost any aspect.
I think we could have avoided this, but it would have taken a great leader to navigate us out of the mess of COVID + overfinancialization + demographics etc etc
Seems like Trump is the face of the death thros of US global hegemony. All the chaos he's stirring up is the last-ditch effort to convince everyone else of its legitimacy and prowess to continue the status quo. No one is buying it.
Really exceptional summary of the “entropy” going on, if I can call it that. Politicians of all stripes across the West - this includes but is not limited to USA, UK, Canada, Australia, France, Germany etc - spend far too much time looking in the rear view mirror instead of moving forward and adapting to what’s in front of them. I’m aware adaptation to a new world order will never be smooth sailing but as you note, nostalgia is not a strategy and constantly reminiscing about “the old days” or whatever isn’t going to move a country forward economically, especially in an ever-changing world.
This is exactly the moment Democrats should seize—not by competing in the culture-war spectacle, but by putting forward a serious platform centered on affordability and material stability. In an era of volatility, nihilism, and “Great Entertainment,” voters—especially Gen Z—are looking for proof that governance can still make it possible to build a life: afford housing, raise a family, and have a stake in the system. A party that leads with a credible affordability agenda isn’t dodging reality; it’s responding to it.
Agreed, the identity politics and catastrophism-obsessed far left is looking more like a circus these days and the Democrats need to ditch their current group leaders' influence. The problem is we are in an untenable situation economically--any leader is gifted with a bus going 80 mph that's lost its steering ($40 trillion debt, over leveraging, bonds spiking--as pointed out eloquently by Kyla). There's going to be a reset and I hope 1) it happens on Trump's watch, and 2) that in the meantime the Democrats are getting their act together a be a party of reason.
It is time to crowd source solutions the Dems can run on. They clearly can't get their act together and put out big ideas around affordability that break though the noise of outrage. Here is my contribution:
I read a lot of the major purveyors of news and analysis (WSJ, NYT, FT, Bloomberg, The Free Press), but your article is easily the best analysis of Trump and the global economy I have read. Simply brilliant. Thank you.
Great article as always. It will be interesting to see how the "middle powers" come away from Davos and if they have been galvanized into some form of alternative action.
This well-crafted expertly written economic analysis of recent geopolitical events demonstrates an evolution from Kyla’s economics professor style to that of a complex global analyst. Heiress to Adam Tooze. I would enjoy a conversation between them
Am at the end of the section just before you get to Powell and The Truth, but wanted to take a moment to pause to disagree with one aspect of the Carney quote here regarding mourning and nostalgia. The speech was brilliant and hopefully a further step in the rally of human cooperation... but, I think it is important to take the time to look back and reflect on what we have lost. Not to try to bring back some fantasy of restorative nostalgia, but to mourn what we have lost and loved despite its imperfections. This will allow us to move forward, unburdened by always craning our necks backwards, and take the lessons we learned so to grow together. Loss, in its varying degrees, is a trauma, and if we do not reckon with the wounds they cause, we will not be able to heal and will be haunted by the pain they will continue to cause. Carney is correct, look forward clearly and adapt to new conditions to create the best possible outcomes together, but use reflection and the processes of grieving to help future achievement... granted, time is short, but, imo, recognition here is important and denial is part of the reason why we are who and where we are now. Forward in cooperation through growth in learning from experience... maybe we can prefigure a place for all of us. Thanks again
A dense, but critical read. Long dispersed chickens are coming home to roost. Reality is going to bite.
Thank you!
Nostalgia is not a strategy. You are brilliant. Please continue to speak truth to power.
Carney said that! Thank you!
I feel very jealous of Canadians after reading his quotes. To be governed by a thoughtful, articulate adult...
The whole piece is so good if you've been following economics (like I have) since the Reaganomics era of the 80s. And yes, Davos feels so washed now.
But you did write, “Nostalgia works as content but it certainly fails as governance.” And THAT was brilliant. So appreciated you walking through the workings of bond markets - so clear and easy to follow!
I feel no matter what happens at this point, the American global hegemony - political, military and economic - is over, and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. I don't think it's the end of America as some are saying, but it will definitely be a different one. What happens over the next few months (or maybe years, but I don't think the current situation has the inertia to continue that long before ending or breaking by some means) will determine just whose America it is - everyone's, or a select few, but the US will not be the powerhouse it is now, in almost any aspect.
I think we could have avoided this, but it would have taken a great leader to navigate us out of the mess of COVID + overfinancialization + demographics etc etc
I agree, and I don't think we had one available, but even the status quo would've been better than the current situation imo.
Seems like Trump is the face of the death thros of US global hegemony. All the chaos he's stirring up is the last-ditch effort to convince everyone else of its legitimacy and prowess to continue the status quo. No one is buying it.
If you want a great example of that (and what can tragically be read as some great comedy writing), read the transcript from his Davos speech today.
My wife tells me that when she was growing up in the 80s/90s, her father used to tell her we’d have a reality show president one day.
Fantastic summary of our times. Thank you. It articulates my concerns so well that I am going to forward it around to my friends.
Thank you!
Really exceptional summary of the “entropy” going on, if I can call it that. Politicians of all stripes across the West - this includes but is not limited to USA, UK, Canada, Australia, France, Germany etc - spend far too much time looking in the rear view mirror instead of moving forward and adapting to what’s in front of them. I’m aware adaptation to a new world order will never be smooth sailing but as you note, nostalgia is not a strategy and constantly reminiscing about “the old days” or whatever isn’t going to move a country forward economically, especially in an ever-changing world.
This is exactly the moment Democrats should seize—not by competing in the culture-war spectacle, but by putting forward a serious platform centered on affordability and material stability. In an era of volatility, nihilism, and “Great Entertainment,” voters—especially Gen Z—are looking for proof that governance can still make it possible to build a life: afford housing, raise a family, and have a stake in the system. A party that leads with a credible affordability agenda isn’t dodging reality; it’s responding to it.
Agreed, the identity politics and catastrophism-obsessed far left is looking more like a circus these days and the Democrats need to ditch their current group leaders' influence. The problem is we are in an untenable situation economically--any leader is gifted with a bus going 80 mph that's lost its steering ($40 trillion debt, over leveraging, bonds spiking--as pointed out eloquently by Kyla). There's going to be a reset and I hope 1) it happens on Trump's watch, and 2) that in the meantime the Democrats are getting their act together a be a party of reason.
It is time to crowd source solutions the Dems can run on. They clearly can't get their act together and put out big ideas around affordability that break though the noise of outrage. Here is my contribution:
https://open.substack.com/pub/priceofbeans/p/redistributing-opportunity-why-democrats?r=9x3dh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Fingers crossed.
Brilliant and yet very accessible! Thank you so much for all you are doing.
Thank you!
Fantastic article as always, Kyla! Thank you.
thanks for reading!
I read a lot of the major purveyors of news and analysis (WSJ, NYT, FT, Bloomberg, The Free Press), but your article is easily the best analysis of Trump and the global economy I have read. Simply brilliant. Thank you.
Thank you! I learn a lot from those major outlets, so it all contributes to the synthesis I am able to provide :)
Great article as always. It will be interesting to see how the "middle powers" come away from Davos and if they have been galvanized into some form of alternative action.
This well-crafted expertly written economic analysis of recent geopolitical events demonstrates an evolution from Kyla’s economics professor style to that of a complex global analyst. Heiress to Adam Tooze. I would enjoy a conversation between them
Excellent article! Great primer on our current milieu..
"Nostalgia is not strategy" is incredibly on point. Thank you
This feels like insider pump and dump trading. https://stocks.apple.com/AcG_q5mIsQsisobFEzDF0Tw
Thought the exact same thing this morning!
“Chaos is a ladder”. Someone is benefitting, but it certainly ain’t me.
Thank you for the excellent newsletter.
Am at the end of the section just before you get to Powell and The Truth, but wanted to take a moment to pause to disagree with one aspect of the Carney quote here regarding mourning and nostalgia. The speech was brilliant and hopefully a further step in the rally of human cooperation... but, I think it is important to take the time to look back and reflect on what we have lost. Not to try to bring back some fantasy of restorative nostalgia, but to mourn what we have lost and loved despite its imperfections. This will allow us to move forward, unburdened by always craning our necks backwards, and take the lessons we learned so to grow together. Loss, in its varying degrees, is a trauma, and if we do not reckon with the wounds they cause, we will not be able to heal and will be haunted by the pain they will continue to cause. Carney is correct, look forward clearly and adapt to new conditions to create the best possible outcomes together, but use reflection and the processes of grieving to help future achievement... granted, time is short, but, imo, recognition here is important and denial is part of the reason why we are who and where we are now. Forward in cooperation through growth in learning from experience... maybe we can prefigure a place for all of us. Thanks again