Absolutely agree with your point on analog! A few months back, I was gifted a 70's Nikkormat (Nikon) to restore, and, honestly, carrying around a camera (instead of just my phone) has brought a whole new dimension to how I view "mundane moments." To me, just hits different and is the closest thing to a physical memory I'll have. So, you can go ahead and count 1 data point towards the resurgence of vintage photography.
--
Also, wanted to thank you for the time you put into this newsletter! I found your content on IG recently (which led me to the newsletter) and have loved diving into all of the thought-provoking and insightful content -- just always feels like I'm in a deep conversation with an old friend over coffee.
Great stuff, thank you. And also, Everyone is Beautiful and No one is Horny is one of the greatest titles in a while. Here's to more trust & authenticity in 2024.
During the inflationary period of the 70s and early 80s, we were consumed with energy prices. The price of gasoline was just heartbreaking, but we still had to commute to work. We’re relearning about the demoralizing effect of inflation.
Many moons later, during the Great Recession,everyone asked me what they should do. I kept saying, like you, just keep going to work, saving what you can, and keep on keeping on. It’s nice to see that you’re also waving the banner.
I love that you talk about trust. I wish you all the best for 2024. Can’t wait to buy a copy of your book.
The labor force participation rate is dropping yearly and has been declining since 2000 from 67% to 62% today. Where I live it’s especially apparent as most businesses can’t get employees since they can’t or won’t pay a living wage. In the middle of the day the town is busy like it used to be on Saturdays only. Cars everywhere, lines of people at the one checkout open at the grocery store. Most everyone I see is 50 or older. A very large segment of the workforce either died, retired early or hit the Lottery. Every property is now jam packed full of people. Thousands of people moved here during covid with no money and no jobs thinking they could live in Montana on a shoestring. First time this year we have a Hooverville outside of town. It’s 10 degrees here right now. They are obviously not from here as no one who grew up here would consider living outside. House prices are still skyrocketing as our property taxes ours went up $1600 in one year. The taxes were $1200 a year when we purchased it. I also think that a large number of people are permanently disabled from covid and this needs to be addressed. I like your writing and I agree with the rest of it. We are being priced out of our home and our state, as is most native Montanans. The only way my retirement will pencil out now is in a foreign country.
that seems fairly extreme, your house payments (if you're still making them) should be decreasing (relative), does that mean your taxes are increasing so much thus pricing you out? How is the entity that is taxing you spending all this extra money?
We pay are taxes separately every 6 months when we get the tax bill. If my taxes continue to increase at this rate over the cost of property taxes will eclipse my income even after the house is finally paid for. As to your second question, that seems to be a mystery as our property taxes support the school system yet we have the lowest starting teacher salary in the nation. The state of Montana also has a huge budget surplus. The common explanation is that the tax burden has been shifted from businesses to property.
that's what was happening in California so the infamous Proposition 13 was passed that essentially grandfathered in taxes at a low rate. Problem is only the people who had houses at that point were included. Our taxes in Alaska were going up substantially and we had similar fears but they leveled off, this being a red TEA state, accountability was seriously addressed by the constituents and tax increases have been slight the past 10 years. Sounds like a rebellion is warranted, as a retired person, I resent governments thinking I have more money to give them just because my property values have increased, Good luck!
4) Promises to lower food prices back to pre-pandemic levels. I do believe that CEOs and Presidential candidates do notice this desire among the people for absolute lower prices for food and you will get those kind of promises, especially from one of not multiple presidential candidates. I don’t think the American voters will trust any promise of this sort by anyone. I think many get that we won’t return to those levels. BUT, I think the acknowledgment of this frustration might be enough for political bettors to think such a promise will tip the USA presidency to one candidate regardless of all the baggage he or she brings. And it’s a lot of baggage.
on this: “But the ‘vibecession’ idea was really important for this year to delineate the disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic data.” – do you have anything on the third disconnect with scientific consensus? (ie the economy’s disconnect from scientific reality (ie climate change and environmental issues) *and* the consumer disconnect from scientific reality)
Thank you as always for a deep dive into looking at all the scattered debris of our ever evolving economic journey. I loved seeing how "vibecession" took off last year. i don't know how you find time to read so much. Your references are so appreciated. Happy New year!
| Analog - People love the algorithm, but they are tired. We will return to more vintage forms of |production, especially with photography and certain types of graphic design
I think this will be a key theme in 2024 influencing much of the media and art that will be made. Basically retro and vintage vibes.
I am hoping that the rise of AI will also bring about a rise in reality. Meaning we will become more aware of that which makes us uniquely human. Since we can now seemingly have so many aspects of our life done by AI, machine learning and robots, even the previously untouchable concept of “creativity” can be fiddled with and aped by AI. And AI will only become more convincing and better integrated into work and life. But what are the basic tenets of humanity that would set us apart from an outside machine? That is what 2024 will
start to ask and answer which will hopefully lead us all back to ourselves and allow us to see our worth as more than a commodity of eyeballs, outrage and earning potential.
thank you everyone!
ilysm 🥹🫶❤️
<3
Truly amazing how much you can consume, analyse and then summarize for us mortals.
Absolutely agree with your point on analog! A few months back, I was gifted a 70's Nikkormat (Nikon) to restore, and, honestly, carrying around a camera (instead of just my phone) has brought a whole new dimension to how I view "mundane moments." To me, just hits different and is the closest thing to a physical memory I'll have. So, you can go ahead and count 1 data point towards the resurgence of vintage photography.
--
Also, wanted to thank you for the time you put into this newsletter! I found your content on IG recently (which led me to the newsletter) and have loved diving into all of the thought-provoking and insightful content -- just always feels like I'm in a deep conversation with an old friend over coffee.
thanks so much Candace <3 i love hearing that!
Great issue of a great newsletter.
PS Time is a flat circle.
xoxoxo
Neil
lmaooo time drives me NUTS!
Great stuff, thank you. And also, Everyone is Beautiful and No one is Horny is one of the greatest titles in a while. Here's to more trust & authenticity in 2024.
its a brilliant piece!
Just read it, thank you! Deeply insightful.
During the inflationary period of the 70s and early 80s, we were consumed with energy prices. The price of gasoline was just heartbreaking, but we still had to commute to work. We’re relearning about the demoralizing effect of inflation.
Many moons later, during the Great Recession,everyone asked me what they should do. I kept saying, like you, just keep going to work, saving what you can, and keep on keeping on. It’s nice to see that you’re also waving the banner.
I love that you talk about trust. I wish you all the best for 2024. Can’t wait to buy a copy of your book.
thank you Nikki!
Thanks for a truly fine summation, you wordwright you!
thanks Jay!!
The labor force participation rate is dropping yearly and has been declining since 2000 from 67% to 62% today. Where I live it’s especially apparent as most businesses can’t get employees since they can’t or won’t pay a living wage. In the middle of the day the town is busy like it used to be on Saturdays only. Cars everywhere, lines of people at the one checkout open at the grocery store. Most everyone I see is 50 or older. A very large segment of the workforce either died, retired early or hit the Lottery. Every property is now jam packed full of people. Thousands of people moved here during covid with no money and no jobs thinking they could live in Montana on a shoestring. First time this year we have a Hooverville outside of town. It’s 10 degrees here right now. They are obviously not from here as no one who grew up here would consider living outside. House prices are still skyrocketing as our property taxes ours went up $1600 in one year. The taxes were $1200 a year when we purchased it. I also think that a large number of people are permanently disabled from covid and this needs to be addressed. I like your writing and I agree with the rest of it. We are being priced out of our home and our state, as is most native Montanans. The only way my retirement will pencil out now is in a foreign country.
that seems fairly extreme, your house payments (if you're still making them) should be decreasing (relative), does that mean your taxes are increasing so much thus pricing you out? How is the entity that is taxing you spending all this extra money?
We pay are taxes separately every 6 months when we get the tax bill. If my taxes continue to increase at this rate over the cost of property taxes will eclipse my income even after the house is finally paid for. As to your second question, that seems to be a mystery as our property taxes support the school system yet we have the lowest starting teacher salary in the nation. The state of Montana also has a huge budget surplus. The common explanation is that the tax burden has been shifted from businesses to property.
that's what was happening in California so the infamous Proposition 13 was passed that essentially grandfathered in taxes at a low rate. Problem is only the people who had houses at that point were included. Our taxes in Alaska were going up substantially and we had similar fears but they leveled off, this being a red TEA state, accountability was seriously addressed by the constituents and tax increases have been slight the past 10 years. Sounds like a rebellion is warranted, as a retired person, I resent governments thinking I have more money to give them just because my property values have increased, Good luck!
A fascinating compilation. What versatility and brilliance! To top it off, a long list of favorite poems. Not many people like you.
4) Promises to lower food prices back to pre-pandemic levels. I do believe that CEOs and Presidential candidates do notice this desire among the people for absolute lower prices for food and you will get those kind of promises, especially from one of not multiple presidential candidates. I don’t think the American voters will trust any promise of this sort by anyone. I think many get that we won’t return to those levels. BUT, I think the acknowledgment of this frustration might be enough for political bettors to think such a promise will tip the USA presidency to one candidate regardless of all the baggage he or she brings. And it’s a lot of baggage.
i love your choice of three quotations!
on this: “But the ‘vibecession’ idea was really important for this year to delineate the disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic data.” – do you have anything on the third disconnect with scientific consensus? (ie the economy’s disconnect from scientific reality (ie climate change and environmental issues) *and* the consumer disconnect from scientific reality)
Sooooo good as always
Thank you as always for a deep dive into looking at all the scattered debris of our ever evolving economic journey. I loved seeing how "vibecession" took off last year. i don't know how you find time to read so much. Your references are so appreciated. Happy New year!
| Analog - People love the algorithm, but they are tired. We will return to more vintage forms of |production, especially with photography and certain types of graphic design
I think this will be a key theme in 2024 influencing much of the media and art that will be made. Basically retro and vintage vibes.
I am hoping that the rise of AI will also bring about a rise in reality. Meaning we will become more aware of that which makes us uniquely human. Since we can now seemingly have so many aspects of our life done by AI, machine learning and robots, even the previously untouchable concept of “creativity” can be fiddled with and aped by AI. And AI will only become more convincing and better integrated into work and life. But what are the basic tenets of humanity that would set us apart from an outside machine? That is what 2024 will
start to ask and answer which will hopefully lead us all back to ourselves and allow us to see our worth as more than a commodity of eyeballs, outrage and earning potential.
What a digest of perspectives and data, and on top of it all an attitude that it’s all going to be alright! Feeling uplifted. Thank you!