How do you process so much information so lucidly and quickly and consistently? And THEN manage to communicate it all in a digestible, contextualized way that sidesteps memetic warfare, engages seriously with the material reality of each angle, and then also manages to end with unforced optimism? Without losing your mind or needing regular escape/withdrawal (either from the digital or material realm)???
While traveling and spontaneous salsa dancing?? This is 4-minute mile stuff I’m serious
Hahahaha - thank you!! I think it's important to sift through this noise for people and to explain the economic implications, so it's really an honor to be trusted to do that by you all.
Present Shock is phenomenal, had forgotten about it! I’m surprised it’s not read for widely (may it is).
In terms of a parallel economy, most real estate in places like NYC (or Panama, where I write) is a parallel economy that has very little to do with the real one. Sooo much of Manhattan real estate, for example, is just rich oligarchs (including many of Vlad’s buddies) parking money outside the reach of their own authorities (legal, fiscal, etc). Trumps main branding project in Panama City, for example, is called Narco-a-Lago: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/narco-a-lago-panama/
I literally just wrote a post (in Spanish) about Panama’s parallel economy. Once you’ve captured the rule-making mechanisms of government, it’s relatively easy to creat one! Still amazes me, though, how “Latin American” the U.S. has gotten as inequality has risen there.
The bots aspect is not talked about enough. Audience capture is a common enough phenomenon. Why can't people be capture by an audience of bots who pass the Turing test? And many in this administration are notably very online.
At the moment it's my favorite conspiracy theory. Would love to see more evidence.
The only people who benefit from a recession are those with lots of cash, buying up assets for pennies on the dollar... now who might that be? Hint: not me.
I did a leveraged bet on the market dropping Monday, small potatoes but still a week's wages for me (should have done it Thursday too but I didn't have quite as solid conviction)
I feel a little silly for not betting harder on this drop. I sold a little last week, and bought this week. I don't even know my profits might not be three figures yet.
Probably the most important and most holistic analysis of our current situation I have read. This will be a grounding one to come back to when we are flooded by disinformation and revisionist history.
Regarding the bots making it hard to get to the truth: I think cause and effect are reversed here. The bots are effective because most people don’t really care much about “the truth”. Politicians (and others) are getting better and better at exploiting this by giving them the narratives that trigger their emotions. Trump has excelled at this like no other. I do not believe getting to the truth is any more difficult than it ever has been (btw it has always been difficult) - in many ways it is easier. But this just isn’t a priority for most people. They want the narratives, vibes, and “tribal signals.”
Recently. I had a conversation with the loan officer that approved me for a mortgage. I went to school with his daughter and I know that she has politics in line with me on the left, but I think he's more conservative, and certainly was before Trump.
Anyway, what he said to me was that everything started to fall apart when Reagan "turned the IRS into a bank" and then he went on to explain how the IRS is kindof like a bank. To which I added so is starbucks! Then we discussed the differences between the three. It was such an interesting conversation, and his comment on Regan was so fascinating - It seemed like a criticism of Reagan from a place of conservatism, which is something you don't often see, especially economically speaking - and unexpecte, that I forgot to ask him what exactly he thought caused the change.
So I did some reading on Regan Era Tax Codes, and I'm pretty sure what he ment specifically (because he was very focused on Digital vs Physical, and the time it used to take to collect taxes) was that under the 1986 Tax Reform Act, there was a provision that the IRS was no longer required to physically collect cash from across the country. Instead they could do it digitally. And then I thought about what would happen if you reversed that. And I think everything would just blow up. You can't reach the velocity thats needed to maintain the speculation and deficit spending that this country has become addicted to in a very, deeply bipartisan matter. So I didn't think much more about it.
But then reading this article and specifically about the idea of temporal dysphoria, and something clicked in my head: the cost and limitations of moving physical capital across physical space is almost like a Tax that exists so that speculation, investment, spending, deficits - all of this won't get out of control by becoming disconnected from the material world and the laws of physics, - an analog wealth from which to draw material cash, not a digital number on a website that represents a tacit agreement that if I walk out of the store with $500 worth of groceries in my cart without giving anything but a piece of plastic which can be digitally scanned to confirm that the digital number I see on my account is real, and the store will eventually be given value by someone, eventually, also digitally.
I still don't think going back to analog monies would be a good idea. But I find it interesting lens to apply this cultural temporal dysphoria on to economic ideas to create a theory of economic temporal dysphoria.
This is a very interesting point - the digitalization of everything has enabled us to be so lost in time, and has separated us from reality in many ways.
Good callout on the underestimation of bot's impact on our social consciousness. They are certainly re-enforcing and encouraging the economic falsities being spewed by the current administration
Sometimes you have to break shit, to make progress....
And, while that is happening, just settle down.
I love my Seattle Times: they purposely go out and find that one interesting person who is being laid off/or temporarily in limbo, to demonstrate that "it's all wrong, except the excess and unaccountable spending". Legacy Media: lost it's way.
Kyla, do you think that it is probable that we may not only enter a recession, but a full blown depression? There are reports I've read of employment numbers already being artificially inflated under the Biden administration and all of the public sector cuts are doing nothing but increasing those statistics. With a Covid (and other disease) resurgence possibly on the horizon, that could further increase unemployment. If the (seemingly planned) recession happens, couldn't the bottom completely fall out? If fewer working and fewer folks outside the top 10% of earners or so can afford to buy anything, that seems to me rife to cause a total collapse of our economic system
I don’t think that’s doomer-ish. I think that’s looking at a reasonable long term possibility. You can do all the planning you want to create a “controllable” recession, but I imagine that only works if literally nothing else goes wrong. And something else always goes wrong.
You nailed it. Full agreement on everything, and that does not happen often to me. So, how can we deal with the environment we are facing for not going insane?
Here is my personal answer. I set priorities on which information matters to me. If it does not concern me, it does not matter. If it does concern me, I track the information back to credible sources, and it is crazy how often that changes it entirely. I don't care if politicians lie or not, and they do both at unexpected times. They appear not to lie more often than citizens, which makes sense, because they origin from the same culture. When I note or store something, I keep track of the source of information. It is wonderful that you always provide information sources. The economy, for example, does concern me. I rather browse through FED data or other national statistics than listen to the news. Trump moving the markets does not concern me. Market volatility does and it can be measured and acted upon. Fundamentals concern me and so does the trend, but thousand media articles on what supposedly causes the trend do not matter.
So you love your home country. As lovely as that sounds, that may become an abusive relationship. The culture changes. Trump and Musk are symptoms. Should one disappear, they will be replaced. Long ago, people perhaps said they love the roman empire as their home country, and regret seeing it fall apart. It is easy to love the past for its stability of not changing any more. And that is my second answer: Reflective thinking. Understand your identity, your mental models of the world, and what's not actually part of it even though it felt like to begin with. Like a strong bound to something that is just past. To quote yourself: Nostalgia is escapism.
Seeing things as they are, not how the media screams they look like, and knowing your aims, provides a clear sight of where to go.
True, but it isn’t nostalgic to fight to regain what was criminally taken. America isn’t a series of transactions. It’s a system of beliefs. We fought and won those values back before. We can do it again.
How do you process so much information so lucidly and quickly and consistently? And THEN manage to communicate it all in a digestible, contextualized way that sidesteps memetic warfare, engages seriously with the material reality of each angle, and then also manages to end with unforced optimism? Without losing your mind or needing regular escape/withdrawal (either from the digital or material realm)???
While traveling and spontaneous salsa dancing?? This is 4-minute mile stuff I’m serious
Hahahaha - thank you!! I think it's important to sift through this noise for people and to explain the economic implications, so it's really an honor to be trusted to do that by you all.
Gen Z dragon energy
Well said. She is quite admirable.
Super happy that you’re using your influence for objective takes in a world that’s deliberately being confused and misled.
That's the only thing influence should be used for
Business managerial and political classes in the US can’t seem to get that through their heads
Influence is supposed to be a positive force for all, not just the individual’s own gain.
Present Shock is phenomenal, had forgotten about it! I’m surprised it’s not read for widely (may it is).
In terms of a parallel economy, most real estate in places like NYC (or Panama, where I write) is a parallel economy that has very little to do with the real one. Sooo much of Manhattan real estate, for example, is just rich oligarchs (including many of Vlad’s buddies) parking money outside the reach of their own authorities (legal, fiscal, etc). Trumps main branding project in Panama City, for example, is called Narco-a-Lago: https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/narco-a-lago-panama/
I literally just wrote a post (in Spanish) about Panama’s parallel economy. Once you’ve captured the rule-making mechanisms of government, it’s relatively easy to creat one! Still amazes me, though, how “Latin American” the U.S. has gotten as inequality has risen there.
Excellent! And yes to changing our relationship to time!
The bots aspect is not talked about enough. Audience capture is a common enough phenomenon. Why can't people be capture by an audience of bots who pass the Turing test? And many in this administration are notably very online.
At the moment it's my favorite conspiracy theory. Would love to see more evidence.
Mine too!
The only people who benefit from a recession are those with lots of cash, buying up assets for pennies on the dollar... now who might that be? Hint: not me.
it's a very select few!
Almost like he’s driving down asset prices so his rich buddies can buy them cheap and get even more future cash flows and asset appreciation!
Maybe this tariffs thing is just the largest stock manipulation policy in all history?
I did a leveraged bet on the market dropping Monday, small potatoes but still a week's wages for me (should have done it Thursday too but I didn't have quite as solid conviction)
Nice!
I feel a little silly for not betting harder on this drop. I sold a little last week, and bought this week. I don't even know my profits might not be three figures yet.
Wow, awesome write up again Kyla, keep it up!
Great article. Thanks for writing it.
Probably the most important and most holistic analysis of our current situation I have read. This will be a grounding one to come back to when we are flooded by disinformation and revisionist history.
Regarding the bots making it hard to get to the truth: I think cause and effect are reversed here. The bots are effective because most people don’t really care much about “the truth”. Politicians (and others) are getting better and better at exploiting this by giving them the narratives that trigger their emotions. Trump has excelled at this like no other. I do not believe getting to the truth is any more difficult than it ever has been (btw it has always been difficult) - in many ways it is easier. But this just isn’t a priority for most people. They want the narratives, vibes, and “tribal signals.”
This is true!
Recently. I had a conversation with the loan officer that approved me for a mortgage. I went to school with his daughter and I know that she has politics in line with me on the left, but I think he's more conservative, and certainly was before Trump.
Anyway, what he said to me was that everything started to fall apart when Reagan "turned the IRS into a bank" and then he went on to explain how the IRS is kindof like a bank. To which I added so is starbucks! Then we discussed the differences between the three. It was such an interesting conversation, and his comment on Regan was so fascinating - It seemed like a criticism of Reagan from a place of conservatism, which is something you don't often see, especially economically speaking - and unexpecte, that I forgot to ask him what exactly he thought caused the change.
So I did some reading on Regan Era Tax Codes, and I'm pretty sure what he ment specifically (because he was very focused on Digital vs Physical, and the time it used to take to collect taxes) was that under the 1986 Tax Reform Act, there was a provision that the IRS was no longer required to physically collect cash from across the country. Instead they could do it digitally. And then I thought about what would happen if you reversed that. And I think everything would just blow up. You can't reach the velocity thats needed to maintain the speculation and deficit spending that this country has become addicted to in a very, deeply bipartisan matter. So I didn't think much more about it.
But then reading this article and specifically about the idea of temporal dysphoria, and something clicked in my head: the cost and limitations of moving physical capital across physical space is almost like a Tax that exists so that speculation, investment, spending, deficits - all of this won't get out of control by becoming disconnected from the material world and the laws of physics, - an analog wealth from which to draw material cash, not a digital number on a website that represents a tacit agreement that if I walk out of the store with $500 worth of groceries in my cart without giving anything but a piece of plastic which can be digitally scanned to confirm that the digital number I see on my account is real, and the store will eventually be given value by someone, eventually, also digitally.
I still don't think going back to analog monies would be a good idea. But I find it interesting lens to apply this cultural temporal dysphoria on to economic ideas to create a theory of economic temporal dysphoria.
This is a very interesting point - the digitalization of everything has enabled us to be so lost in time, and has separated us from reality in many ways.
There is a great article from Lyn Alden on "The speed of transactions vs the speed of settlements" which describes that change in detail.
Good callout on the underestimation of bot's impact on our social consciousness. They are certainly re-enforcing and encouraging the economic falsities being spewed by the current administration
Especially to Musk
Yeah, seems like he has an army of them swarming every post he makes
Sometimes you have to break shit, to make progress....
And, while that is happening, just settle down.
I love my Seattle Times: they purposely go out and find that one interesting person who is being laid off/or temporarily in limbo, to demonstrate that "it's all wrong, except the excess and unaccountable spending". Legacy Media: lost it's way.
Where’s the evidence of a plan for progress? I haven’t seen it.
Kyla, do you think that it is probable that we may not only enter a recession, but a full blown depression? There are reports I've read of employment numbers already being artificially inflated under the Biden administration and all of the public sector cuts are doing nothing but increasing those statistics. With a Covid (and other disease) resurgence possibly on the horizon, that could further increase unemployment. If the (seemingly planned) recession happens, couldn't the bottom completely fall out? If fewer working and fewer folks outside the top 10% of earners or so can afford to buy anything, that seems to me rife to cause a total collapse of our economic system
I am a bit worried it could get extremely bad. We just don't know.
Sorry if I appear doomer-ish, but it's a horrific time for anyone paying attention
I don’t think that’s doomer-ish. I think that’s looking at a reasonable long term possibility. You can do all the planning you want to create a “controllable” recession, but I imagine that only works if literally nothing else goes wrong. And something else always goes wrong.
Murphy's Law is ever present when Trump is concerned
COVID changed our culture as will AI. Nobody can foretell the future, so buckle up and enjoy the ride of your life.
You nailed it. Full agreement on everything, and that does not happen often to me. So, how can we deal with the environment we are facing for not going insane?
Here is my personal answer. I set priorities on which information matters to me. If it does not concern me, it does not matter. If it does concern me, I track the information back to credible sources, and it is crazy how often that changes it entirely. I don't care if politicians lie or not, and they do both at unexpected times. They appear not to lie more often than citizens, which makes sense, because they origin from the same culture. When I note or store something, I keep track of the source of information. It is wonderful that you always provide information sources. The economy, for example, does concern me. I rather browse through FED data or other national statistics than listen to the news. Trump moving the markets does not concern me. Market volatility does and it can be measured and acted upon. Fundamentals concern me and so does the trend, but thousand media articles on what supposedly causes the trend do not matter.
So you love your home country. As lovely as that sounds, that may become an abusive relationship. The culture changes. Trump and Musk are symptoms. Should one disappear, they will be replaced. Long ago, people perhaps said they love the roman empire as their home country, and regret seeing it fall apart. It is easy to love the past for its stability of not changing any more. And that is my second answer: Reflective thinking. Understand your identity, your mental models of the world, and what's not actually part of it even though it felt like to begin with. Like a strong bound to something that is just past. To quote yourself: Nostalgia is escapism.
Seeing things as they are, not how the media screams they look like, and knowing your aims, provides a clear sight of where to go.
True, but it isn’t nostalgic to fight to regain what was criminally taken. America isn’t a series of transactions. It’s a system of beliefs. We fought and won those values back before. We can do it again.