i used to wonder, economics is more about how humans behave, feel, than data. this piece vindicates that thesis strongly, even if things are sunny (which they are, relatively speaking), they might to appear bad (really bad, which also they are). thus, vibes matter. a lot. As of yet, vibes are suppressed & they compound sooner than later which gives a murky, blurry picture of how things are.
I like the vibe analysis. You note money is not a moral compass. In my world people seeing the USA lose its moral compass (in God we trust) is a large element producing a negative vibe.
Many (myself included) are convinced we are seeing an intentional destruction of the industrial economy led by leftists determined to take it down in order to “build back better” so we can have a Marxist dream where “you will own nothing and you will like it”.
Not a pleasant vibe. The numbers feeling this are not small.
i used to wonder, economics is more about how humans behave, feel, than data. this piece vindicates that thesis strongly, even if things are sunny (which they are, relatively speaking), they might to appear bad (really bad, which also they are). thus, vibes matter. a lot. As of yet, vibes are suppressed & they compound sooner than later which gives a murky, blurry picture of how things are.
When people in China are not able to take out more than 1,000 RMB, I'd argue the vibe is a lot worse in China. Supply-chain disruption from China is one of the main drivers of inflation imho. The Fed's QE was over-kill and we might have a multi-year period, including a B.A. 5 resurgence in the Fall problem.
Geopolitical factors are significant. Are most your readers U.S. based? The narrative that the U.S. is somehow in a league of its own with low unemployment just feels very skewed. The recession is already global.
I feel like there is some kind disconnect between the labour market and the unemployment rate right now. The vibes are off because from my reality there are so many jobs open right now. Some are BS do nothing jobs and others are productive jobs. The do-nothing jobs are the higher paying Jobs for some reason? I feel like there is something wrong with the Labour market in western countries. Are government regulations making it impossible for small businesses to compete in the labour market? If you can provide some insight that would be greatly appreciated.
I found your perspective very intriguing. I liked how you came from the aspect of energy and vibes to a lot of the society challenged. Heck it even had me think of where I was, what I was doing abs thinking back in 2008. So truth be told, this perspective allowed me to have more hope through all the noise that’s being put out there despite some of it is real. Thanks!
It's a vibe-fest, which is both blessing and curse. To paraphrase Colonel Kurtz at the end of Apocalypse Now, "The complexity ..." We need a larger-than-life story to lift all boats in this fetid pond, and I believe we'll get one. We are inveterate storytellers, we humans.
Thank you, Kyla! You are hitting the nail squarely. Thanks for the Charles Bukowski ref.
Well said. It's funny how a stock market decline can change the narrative in a hurry. Inflation wasn't an emergency last year when markets were stable.
“ My words are powerful tools for good. They are the building blocks for the good I want to establish in my life and see in the lives of others. As I give love and light to my words, they become the foundation for my experience of wholeness, peace, and prosperity..”
A quote i like (and try to enact) that seems to fit. Great post and you nailed it - fundamentallly we need to solve energy
Going full “I told you so” here - see below - it’s not “vibes” or perception, or an unpredictable Fed, it was always fundamental, I said it months ago, and if you didn’t see it, you don’t get it.
FYI - it gets worse from here. Economy in US is in recession already, Europe is worse, housing crisis is heading for a Titanic level crash, it’s all there right in front of you.
Markets still haven’t priced in European winter - it’s going to be catastrophic. EU - which was always a joke - probably won’t look the same in a year.
Look - we’re already in a recession already, housing is being revalued much lower, and we’re just getting started. Inflation is still over 8% - Fed target is 2% - so we’re going to see more rate hikes and less economic activity. It’s fine, it’s a good thing cause we’ve been out of control on QE and Congressional spending, but it’s not psychological, it’s fundamental.
i used to wonder, economics is more about how humans behave, feel, than data. this piece vindicates that thesis strongly, even if things are sunny (which they are, relatively speaking), they might to appear bad (really bad, which also they are). thus, vibes matter. a lot. As of yet, vibes are suppressed & they compound sooner than later which gives a murky, blurry picture of how things are.
in the end, Kyla & i know what we don't know...
really amazing writing, Godspeed.
Such a great breakdown of this! Thank you!
I like the vibe analysis. You note money is not a moral compass. In my world people seeing the USA lose its moral compass (in God we trust) is a large element producing a negative vibe.
Many (myself included) are convinced we are seeing an intentional destruction of the industrial economy led by leftists determined to take it down in order to “build back better” so we can have a Marxist dream where “you will own nothing and you will like it”.
Not a pleasant vibe. The numbers feeling this are not small.
i used to wonder, economics is more about how humans behave, feel, than data. this piece vindicates that thesis strongly, even if things are sunny (which they are, relatively speaking), they might to appear bad (really bad, which also they are). thus, vibes matter. a lot. As of yet, vibes are suppressed & they compound sooner than later which gives a murky, blurry picture of how things are.
in the end, Kyla & i know what we don't know...
really amazing writing, Godspeed.
When people in China are not able to take out more than 1,000 RMB, I'd argue the vibe is a lot worse in China. Supply-chain disruption from China is one of the main drivers of inflation imho. The Fed's QE was over-kill and we might have a multi-year period, including a B.A. 5 resurgence in the Fall problem.
Geopolitical factors are significant. Are most your readers U.S. based? The narrative that the U.S. is somehow in a league of its own with low unemployment just feels very skewed. The recession is already global.
Superrrrr interesting read! Thanks Kyla!
I feel like there is some kind disconnect between the labour market and the unemployment rate right now. The vibes are off because from my reality there are so many jobs open right now. Some are BS do nothing jobs and others are productive jobs. The do-nothing jobs are the higher paying Jobs for some reason? I feel like there is something wrong with the Labour market in western countries. Are government regulations making it impossible for small businesses to compete in the labour market? If you can provide some insight that would be greatly appreciated.
Cheers,
I found your perspective very intriguing. I liked how you came from the aspect of energy and vibes to a lot of the society challenged. Heck it even had me think of where I was, what I was doing abs thinking back in 2008. So truth be told, this perspective allowed me to have more hope through all the noise that’s being put out there despite some of it is real. Thanks!
It's a vibe-fest, which is both blessing and curse. To paraphrase Colonel Kurtz at the end of Apocalypse Now, "The complexity ..." We need a larger-than-life story to lift all boats in this fetid pond, and I believe we'll get one. We are inveterate storytellers, we humans.
Thank you, Kyla! You are hitting the nail squarely. Thanks for the Charles Bukowski ref.
Well said. It's funny how a stock market decline can change the narrative in a hurry. Inflation wasn't an emergency last year when markets were stable.
“ My words are powerful tools for good. They are the building blocks for the good I want to establish in my life and see in the lives of others. As I give love and light to my words, they become the foundation for my experience of wholeness, peace, and prosperity..”
A quote i like (and try to enact) that seems to fit. Great post and you nailed it - fundamentallly we need to solve energy
It’s about the money supply and bad policy. I am dumber for having read this.
Hi Benny Boy - I recommend you look into behavioral economics! Thanks for taking time to comment.
Going full “I told you so” here - see below - it’s not “vibes” or perception, or an unpredictable Fed, it was always fundamental, I said it months ago, and if you didn’t see it, you don’t get it.
FYI - it gets worse from here. Economy in US is in recession already, Europe is worse, housing crisis is heading for a Titanic level crash, it’s all there right in front of you.
Markets still haven’t priced in European winter - it’s going to be catastrophic. EU - which was always a joke - probably won’t look the same in a year.
Oh, wow, interesting - I’ve never heard of that.
Look - we’re already in a recession already, housing is being revalued much lower, and we’re just getting started. Inflation is still over 8% - Fed target is 2% - so we’re going to see more rate hikes and less economic activity. It’s fine, it’s a good thing cause we’ve been out of control on QE and Congressional spending, but it’s not psychological, it’s fundamental.