You are describing the dotcom era. The idea of “eyeballs” before actual revenues and cash flow. Worked for a while, then came crashing down. It wasn’t real, except for a small few like Amazon who made massive wealth in the long run. But that didn’t prevent AMZN from dropping over 90% when the dotcom bubble was pricked.
When I read essays such as this one, Kyla, it scares me into thinking we are near a major market top. The dotcom mania was followed by a bust and the U.S. stock market that went nowhere for the decade of the 00’s, but did have two 50%+ drawdowns. Are we nearing that time again? Not sure, but your piece makes me think it’s ominously close!
Of course! I came across your work back in the early pandemic days, had just finished my undergrad at the time - I love the humility, candidness and clear vision you bring to the scene. It makes fin/econ/policy much more relatable and enjoyable for the Gen Z audience.
I would argue that these coins are not value creation, but rather value extraction.
Much of finance can be described as the diversion of money away from the production of goods and services, and while it enriches some, in aggregate, this diversion of money away from production does not create value, but rather diverts value away from the "real" economy to the "speculative" economy.
This is probably the most terrifying thing I’ve seen you write or speak about. I’m deeply concerned about the ramifications of all this. Nonetheless, I appreciate you doing the work for analyzing this stuff and publishing it. Please stay safe out there.
>The implications are clear: we’re entering an era where wealth is created faster than regulation can respond, and reality itself is shaped by speculation
At risk of sounding like a pedant -- but i do believe its important -- I wouldn't say wealth is "created" in instances like Trumpcoin, more like, "redistributed".
A mass deportation scheme should not be referred to as an "immigration crackdown". This is adopting the language of euphemism. We are talking about millions of Americans being deported.
Love this piece! Really intrigued to know how you think we can better utilise rapid/massive attention to fuel genuine innovation?
Feels as though the two don’t go together as new developments in any field are hard and take real personal & financial perseverance to achieve. Your example of the fires is a great reminder that it usually takes disaster to cause proper re-evaluation. Want to be hopeful (like you!) that it doesn’t come to that on a large scale.
Excellent breakdown. It’s the perfect example to demonstrate the fourth stage of simulation, pure simulacrum, as described by Baudrillard. We live in the hyperreal.
Or the whole thing is a Ponzi scheme. Trump fleeces his most fervent supporters. He and other insiders sell while the price is high. The narrative turns and there are many angry losers. At which point Trump uses the power of the state to try to prop it up, putting the US government on the hook for the speculators’ losses.
Very good article!!! What happens when attention turns away. Does the wealth it creates disappear? I think that if the attention singularity happens all you have to do is stop paying attention. To capture that kind of attention would be monumental to keep it I would say impossible.
I think the only point you missed is that Trump never indicated he was the one buying Tik Tok. In his address yesterday he said that we had buyers that would be more than happy to buy Tik tok at a 500 billion dollar evaluation.
I was confused about the sense of optimism at the very end given the rest of the tone and implications of the rest the article. I’m just not seeing the link there. Curious if you could expand on that.
You are describing the dotcom era. The idea of “eyeballs” before actual revenues and cash flow. Worked for a while, then came crashing down. It wasn’t real, except for a small few like Amazon who made massive wealth in the long run. But that didn’t prevent AMZN from dropping over 90% when the dotcom bubble was pricked.
When I read essays such as this one, Kyla, it scares me into thinking we are near a major market top. The dotcom mania was followed by a bust and the U.S. stock market that went nowhere for the decade of the 00’s, but did have two 50%+ drawdowns. Are we nearing that time again? Not sure, but your piece makes me think it’s ominously close!
You've definitely got a knack for clarity! Excellent read and analysis. Thanks for sharing this out, Kyla.
thank you!
Of course! I came across your work back in the early pandemic days, had just finished my undergrad at the time - I love the humility, candidness and clear vision you bring to the scene. It makes fin/econ/policy much more relatable and enjoyable for the Gen Z audience.
I would argue that these coins are not value creation, but rather value extraction.
Much of finance can be described as the diversion of money away from the production of goods and services, and while it enriches some, in aggregate, this diversion of money away from production does not create value, but rather diverts value away from the "real" economy to the "speculative" economy.
This is probably the most terrifying thing I’ve seen you write or speak about. I’m deeply concerned about the ramifications of all this. Nonetheless, I appreciate you doing the work for analyzing this stuff and publishing it. Please stay safe out there.
thanks - it's a heavy and confusing thing. i hope writing these helps to make a bit of sense of it all
Seriously. What is going on right now.
>The implications are clear: we’re entering an era where wealth is created faster than regulation can respond, and reality itself is shaped by speculation
At risk of sounding like a pedant -- but i do believe its important -- I wouldn't say wealth is "created" in instances like Trumpcoin, more like, "redistributed".
A mass deportation scheme should not be referred to as an "immigration crackdown". This is adopting the language of euphemism. We are talking about millions of Americans being deported.
actually, they are not Americans, that is the point
Love this piece! Really intrigued to know how you think we can better utilise rapid/massive attention to fuel genuine innovation?
Feels as though the two don’t go together as new developments in any field are hard and take real personal & financial perseverance to achieve. Your example of the fires is a great reminder that it usually takes disaster to cause proper re-evaluation. Want to be hopeful (like you!) that it doesn’t come to that on a large scale.
Excellent breakdown. It’s the perfect example to demonstrate the fourth stage of simulation, pure simulacrum, as described by Baudrillard. We live in the hyperreal.
Or the whole thing is a Ponzi scheme. Trump fleeces his most fervent supporters. He and other insiders sell while the price is high. The narrative turns and there are many angry losers. At which point Trump uses the power of the state to try to prop it up, putting the US government on the hook for the speculators’ losses.
that's an option too!
He'll just blame it on democrats and they'll forgive him after he robs them.
You should really on Farcaster! Lots of fans of yours on there
https://warpcast.com/androidsixteen.eth/0x97d042e4
Very good article!!! What happens when attention turns away. Does the wealth it creates disappear? I think that if the attention singularity happens all you have to do is stop paying attention. To capture that kind of attention would be monumental to keep it I would say impossible.
I think the only point you missed is that Trump never indicated he was the one buying Tik Tok. In his address yesterday he said that we had buyers that would be more than happy to buy Tik tok at a 500 billion dollar evaluation.
Excellent and insightful post.
I was confused about the sense of optimism at the very end given the rest of the tone and implications of the rest the article. I’m just not seeing the link there. Curious if you could expand on that.
had to throw a bit of hope in there. i could be completely wrong about everything
Omg! U nailed it! Now this F.O.G. needs to learn how to survive in this brave new world while retaining my morals/faith!
Great clarity and framing. It helps in understanding how power is currently being (ab)used.
‘everything could all go amazingly well’ ? Surely You’re Joking, Kyla Scanlon