I was busy reading James Fallows’ newest piece on rebuilding trust and on the importance of local solutions to build up connections, civic skills and governance, and I have to say this post was a nice complement. I also think that labor unions will be crucial in creating the conditions to rebuild trust--while Hamilton Nolan said a few times that they might need to start using funds for massive organizing drives, I believe unions that get in on the industries of the future, specifically energy startups, will be the smartest institutions out there in the future
Interesting post and thread ~ thank you. Could it be possible that we are headed for all of the above (greater fragmentation, stable roads that forestall this, and new undiscovered roads?). I think all three can be true of companies, and of reality itself. The danger is in thinking any one group or individual has the 'corner on the truth." Complex world, and trust is often something we can evaluate analytically, with data, and also with our experience. Thank you.
Journalist Derek Thompson discusses the idea that trust in institutions has declined because the locus of trust has shifted from institutions to people i.e. from mainstream media outlets like CNN/MSNBC to Joe Rogan, etc. Not sure how this impacts us from an investing perspective but it seems that well-regarded leaders of institutions will build greater followings because of their charisma - Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, etc.
Interesting points and another way to look at investing. This is a solid way to evaluate.
I am suggesting you add O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) to your stock picks. It has a 31 year pattern of consistent growth and does well during recessions Its total return for the last year is 32%, and for 25 years is 21%. A great stock - it has ggood gain and is defensive in that it holds it value in a recession. A 35 year chart for the stock is available at www.Securities-Research.com. I tried to include it here, but can't find a way to attach it to this message.
I came across Securities-Research years ago at an AAII talk in Los Angeles. The presenter displayed such a chart on his screen. I asked him about it and then purchased a Securities Research Book (then with 310 stocks, now with over 800).
I went through page by page and found that AIG monotonically gained 19.5% a hear for 22 years and that General RE, another reinsurer, gained 19.5% for 33 years. I purchased General RE. Two years later Warren Buffett purchased General RE. I look for long-term, steady gainers and that is how I acquired O'Reilly, one of about 10 stocks I own with similiar characteristics.
"The Apathy part circles back again when people lose faith entirely (this is the loop part). That’s kind of where we are headed again - because this isn’t about information cycles, it’s about something more personal: a fundamental promise to each generation that's been unraveling.
The societal pinky promise broke. This is the basic implicit agreement that if you work hard, you'll be able to afford a home, have a stable job, and build a better life than your parents."
From my paper:
"One of the main problems with corporate sexual harassment policies is that they often focus on mitigating liability rather than creating a culture of accountability. While these policies may protect companies from lawsuits, they do not provide the support and protection that employees expect from their employers. This disconnect between the company's policy and the employees' expectations creates a culture where harassment is still pervasive, and employees are reluctant to report these incidents. In order to create a culture of accountability, it is imperative for companies to recognize that their sexual harassment policy is a promise they are making to their employees to provide a safe and harassment-free workplace. This promise cannot be fulfilled if the policy is solely focused on minimizing liability rather than truly eliminating harassment."
What people want and need is AGENCY!
"A big goal of mine is to offer paths toward agency throughout 2025 and beyond. Investing is a path toward agency - you can take action for yourself and build for your future."
We need this in multiple domains. Financial investing but also community building and whistleblowing:
The traditional approach to addressing sexual harassment in the workplace has involved the use of NDAs and forced arbitration agreements. These tools, which were never intended to protect the rights of women in the workforce, are now no longer effective in mitigating liability associated with sexual harassment lawsuits. The Human Resources (HR) department is often the first line of defense in dealing with these issues, but their reliance on these outdated tools has made their policies and procedures less effective in mitigating corporate risk. The solution is to change the power dynamic of how incidents are reported. Giving employees more AGENCY and OWNERSHIP in the reporting process will allow women to feel more comfortable coming forward and reporting incidents, leading to less self censorship.
In my career as a tech guy, I was frequently tasked with deploying, upgrading, or fixing some system in various locations around N. America and W. Europe. After the novelty of air travel wore off, I learned to cultivate local hands and local eyes that could help me avoid getting back on the airplane. These folks were usually not trained for tech work but were often eager to do something different, learn something new, be helpful. If I had occasion to visit the site again, they were usually helpful and accommodative to my sometimes disruptive work. This is part of the “talk to everyone” philosophy that I think builds new connections and brain cells.
This piece comes at a timely moment as I'm drafting a year-end note to my nieces and nephews on the general adventure of stock picking, a follow-up to my treatise on "why John Bogle was right about indexed funds". Not that we must put our heads down and ONLY invest in indexed funds! But it's important to understand his argument.
You are a trustworthy individual (thankyou) obviously nurtured by self-confident humans who allowed their daughter to explore and advance without worry that her investigations would shine an unflattering light on their own program. Having a sibling is another bonus to your rounded exposure.
Beyond healthy family roots, we're faced with the challenge of establishing and maintaining a relationship with our communities. This is where the rubber meets the road! I believe we are at the early stages of a new cycle of community involvement across the globe, hopefully including my neighborhood. My wife and I try to "talk to everybody" as we walk in our inner suburban 'hood, talking to the neighbors and dog walkers, erring on the side of more human contact. Now is the time and we are the ones! It does seem to take a village.
I think my investing philosphy has evolved to a similar stance. Though possibly with more focus on trust in management (at its simplest because a) Founders b) Family business c) decent chunk of shares AND history of treating minority shareholders well AND making good Capital Allocation decisions). The hope is that good numbers will flow out of this.
As opposed to thinking: this company has good numbers, therefore I will invest.
I very much hope that we can all discover more Trust, as politically there is that buzzphrase rn that we are entering the 'Golden Age of Grift' (the Shrub, I think).
In addition, while I don't pretend that previous politicians or media outlets were perfect, but many of the newer lot don't seem like an improvement.
Finally I remember reading a report by an Asian manager where they said they don't like investing in companies doing well because of their political affiliations (in certain countries where there was a lot of that) as you never know when the leadership will change - they wanted businesses that had survived whoever was in charge. Which again was often Family businesses where they could take the long view in surviving.
Your horizon is really short. Do you remember Nvidia when they did just gaming graphic cards? Who could have imagined the future developments? Maybe the ones who worked into the company could have some idea, but how could they predict the AI boom?
I was busy reading James Fallows’ newest piece on rebuilding trust and on the importance of local solutions to build up connections, civic skills and governance, and I have to say this post was a nice complement. I also think that labor unions will be crucial in creating the conditions to rebuild trust--while Hamilton Nolan said a few times that they might need to start using funds for massive organizing drives, I believe unions that get in on the industries of the future, specifically energy startups, will be the smartest institutions out there in the future
Interesting post and thread ~ thank you. Could it be possible that we are headed for all of the above (greater fragmentation, stable roads that forestall this, and new undiscovered roads?). I think all three can be true of companies, and of reality itself. The danger is in thinking any one group or individual has the 'corner on the truth." Complex world, and trust is often something we can evaluate analytically, with data, and also with our experience. Thank you.
My startup is based on solving this exact issue in the grievance reporting space
https://eprint.iacr.org/2023/655
TandaPay looks nice, well done! I'm partial to Algorand but it's hard to bet against Ethereum.
Curated Trust - a major commercial and personal relationship factor.
Journalist Derek Thompson discusses the idea that trust in institutions has declined because the locus of trust has shifted from institutions to people i.e. from mainstream media outlets like CNN/MSNBC to Joe Rogan, etc. Not sure how this impacts us from an investing perspective but it seems that well-regarded leaders of institutions will build greater followings because of their charisma - Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, etc.
yeah derek is one of the best out there - i think it's leader optimization at that point. elon is some ppl's only reason for investing in tsla
Kala,
Interesting points and another way to look at investing. This is a solid way to evaluate.
I am suggesting you add O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) to your stock picks. It has a 31 year pattern of consistent growth and does well during recessions Its total return for the last year is 32%, and for 25 years is 21%. A great stock - it has ggood gain and is defensive in that it holds it value in a recession. A 35 year chart for the stock is available at www.Securities-Research.com. I tried to include it here, but can't find a way to attach it to this message.
I came across Securities-Research years ago at an AAII talk in Los Angeles. The presenter displayed such a chart on his screen. I asked him about it and then purchased a Securities Research Book (then with 310 stocks, now with over 800).
I went through page by page and found that AIG monotonically gained 19.5% a hear for 22 years and that General RE, another reinsurer, gained 19.5% for 33 years. I purchased General RE. Two years later Warren Buffett purchased General RE. I look for long-term, steady gainers and that is how I acquired O'Reilly, one of about 10 stocks I own with similiar characteristics.
Keep up the good work.
Mike
"The Apathy part circles back again when people lose faith entirely (this is the loop part). That’s kind of where we are headed again - because this isn’t about information cycles, it’s about something more personal: a fundamental promise to each generation that's been unraveling.
The societal pinky promise broke. This is the basic implicit agreement that if you work hard, you'll be able to afford a home, have a stable job, and build a better life than your parents."
From my paper:
"One of the main problems with corporate sexual harassment policies is that they often focus on mitigating liability rather than creating a culture of accountability. While these policies may protect companies from lawsuits, they do not provide the support and protection that employees expect from their employers. This disconnect between the company's policy and the employees' expectations creates a culture where harassment is still pervasive, and employees are reluctant to report these incidents. In order to create a culture of accountability, it is imperative for companies to recognize that their sexual harassment policy is a promise they are making to their employees to provide a safe and harassment-free workplace. This promise cannot be fulfilled if the policy is solely focused on minimizing liability rather than truly eliminating harassment."
What people want and need is AGENCY!
"A big goal of mine is to offer paths toward agency throughout 2025 and beyond. Investing is a path toward agency - you can take action for yourself and build for your future."
We need this in multiple domains. Financial investing but also community building and whistleblowing:
The traditional approach to addressing sexual harassment in the workplace has involved the use of NDAs and forced arbitration agreements. These tools, which were never intended to protect the rights of women in the workforce, are now no longer effective in mitigating liability associated with sexual harassment lawsuits. The Human Resources (HR) department is often the first line of defense in dealing with these issues, but their reliance on these outdated tools has made their policies and procedures less effective in mitigating corporate risk. The solution is to change the power dynamic of how incidents are reported. Giving employees more AGENCY and OWNERSHIP in the reporting process will allow women to feel more comfortable coming forward and reporting incidents, leading to less self censorship.
In my career as a tech guy, I was frequently tasked with deploying, upgrading, or fixing some system in various locations around N. America and W. Europe. After the novelty of air travel wore off, I learned to cultivate local hands and local eyes that could help me avoid getting back on the airplane. These folks were usually not trained for tech work but were often eager to do something different, learn something new, be helpful. If I had occasion to visit the site again, they were usually helpful and accommodative to my sometimes disruptive work. This is part of the “talk to everyone” philosophy that I think builds new connections and brain cells.
This piece comes at a timely moment as I'm drafting a year-end note to my nieces and nephews on the general adventure of stock picking, a follow-up to my treatise on "why John Bogle was right about indexed funds". Not that we must put our heads down and ONLY invest in indexed funds! But it's important to understand his argument.
You are a trustworthy individual (thankyou) obviously nurtured by self-confident humans who allowed their daughter to explore and advance without worry that her investigations would shine an unflattering light on their own program. Having a sibling is another bonus to your rounded exposure.
Beyond healthy family roots, we're faced with the challenge of establishing and maintaining a relationship with our communities. This is where the rubber meets the road! I believe we are at the early stages of a new cycle of community involvement across the globe, hopefully including my neighborhood. My wife and I try to "talk to everybody" as we walk in our inner suburban 'hood, talking to the neighbors and dog walkers, erring on the side of more human contact. Now is the time and we are the ones! It does seem to take a village.
I think my investing philosphy has evolved to a similar stance. Though possibly with more focus on trust in management (at its simplest because a) Founders b) Family business c) decent chunk of shares AND history of treating minority shareholders well AND making good Capital Allocation decisions). The hope is that good numbers will flow out of this.
As opposed to thinking: this company has good numbers, therefore I will invest.
I very much hope that we can all discover more Trust, as politically there is that buzzphrase rn that we are entering the 'Golden Age of Grift' (the Shrub, I think).
In addition, while I don't pretend that previous politicians or media outlets were perfect, but many of the newer lot don't seem like an improvement.
Finally I remember reading a report by an Asian manager where they said they don't like investing in companies doing well because of their political affiliations (in certain countries where there was a lot of that) as you never know when the leadership will change - they wanted businesses that had survived whoever was in charge. Which again was often Family businesses where they could take the long view in surviving.
Thanks for this.
Helpful framework for risk-taking. Thanks
AXON
Your horizon is really short. Do you remember Nvidia when they did just gaming graphic cards? Who could have imagined the future developments? Maybe the ones who worked into the company could have some idea, but how could they predict the AI boom?
yes that is why they are a bridge company